付録: 韓国における感情的分極化と投票参加
1 重み付けなし
1.1 推定結果
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | Model 8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
切片 | 1.046 | 1.060 | 1.083 | 1.077 | -1.244 | -0.977 | -1.059 | -1.041 |
(0.103) | (0.103) | (0.102) | (0.102) | (1.055) | (1.035) | (1.009) | (1.003) | |
感情的分極化 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.024 | 0.014 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.006) | |
女性 | -0.031 | -0.039 | -0.041 | -0.039 | -0.485 | -0.483 | -0.389 | -0.399 |
(0.027) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.273) | (0.267) | (0.264) | (0.262) | |
年齢 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | -0.001 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.011) | (0.011) | |
学歴 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.376 | 0.320 | 0.316 | 0.303 |
(0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.149) | (0.146) | (0.144) | (0.144) | |
世帯収入 | 0.029 | 0.028 | 0.030 | 0.029 | 0.232 | 0.215 | 0.229 | 0.240 |
(0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.110) | (0.108) | (0.106) | (0.106) | |
首都圏居住 | 0.006 | -0.001 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.105 | 0.074 | 0.125 | 0.181 |
(0.036) | (0.037) | (0.036) | (0.037) | (0.434) | (0.426) | (0.420) | (0.417) | |
江原居住 | -0.046 | -0.031 | -0.043 | -0.047 | -0.430 | -0.468 | -0.505 | -0.472 |
(0.110) | (0.111) | (0.111) | (0.111) | (0.832) | (0.824) | (0.816) | (0.820) | |
湖西居住 | -0.107 | -0.113 | -0.098 | -0.107 | -0.469 | -0.552 | -0.577 | -0.546 |
(0.062) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.615) | (0.612) | (0.624) | (0.614) | |
湖南・済州居住 | -0.102 | -0.089 | -0.105 | -0.103 | -0.497 | -0.637 | -0.775 | -0.664 |
(0.066) | (0.067) | (0.067) | (0.067) | (0.651) | (0.637) | (0.631) | (0.627) | |
嶺南居住 | -0.026 | -0.027 | -0.031 | -0.021 | -0.190 | -0.211 | -0.283 | -0.195 |
(0.050) | (0.050) | (0.050) | (0.050) | (0.570) | (0.563) | (0.570) | (0.561) | |
首都圏出身 | -0.026 | -0.029 | -0.034 | -0.043 | -0.717 | -0.599 | -0.552 | -0.645 |
(0.044) | (0.044) | (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.491) | (0.479) | (0.470) | (0.466) | |
江原出身 | 0.029 | 0.011 | 0.019 | 0.020 | -0.036 | -0.001 | 0.071 | 0.084 |
(0.091) | (0.091) | (0.091) | (0.091) | (0.887) | (0.884) | (0.881) | (0.881) | |
湖西出身 | 0.041 | 0.040 | 0.028 | 0.034 | -0.175 | -0.132 | -0.042 | -0.062 |
(0.055) | (0.056) | (0.056) | (0.056) | (0.638) | (0.632) | (0.643) | (0.632) | |
湖南・済州出身 | -0.028 | -0.056 | -0.037 | -0.040 | -0.428 | -0.471 | -0.248 | -0.328 |
(0.055) | (0.056) | (0.055) | (0.056) | (0.606) | (0.597) | (0.583) | (0.580) | |
嶺南出身 | -0.016 | -0.021 | -0.020 | -0.023 | -0.610 | -0.612 | -0.506 | -0.563 |
(0.046) | (0.047) | (0.046) | (0.047) | (0.554) | (0.547) | (0.550) | (0.544) | |
政治関心 | 0.106 | 0.107 | 0.105 | 0.106 | 0.446 | 0.487 | 0.432 | 0.442 |
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.129) | (0.125) | (0.124) | (0.123) | |
保革自己認識 | 0.009 | 0.012 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.029 | 0.036 | 0.003 | 0.012 |
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.083) | (0.080) | (0.082) | (0.079) | |
内的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.182 | 0.182 | 0.183 | 0.186 | 0.438 | 0.404 | 0.332 | 0.398 |
(0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.205) | (0.203) | (0.198) | (0.195) | |
外的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.016 | 0.290 | 0.258 | 0.254 | 0.257 |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.154) | (0.148) | (0.146) | (0.145) | |
Num.Obs. | 1659 | 1675 | 1695 | 1695 | 780 | 790 | 800 | 800 |
R2 Adj. | 0.186 | 0.177 | 0.178 | 0.174 | ||||
R2 tjur | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.13 | ||||
AIC | 2524.6 | 2588.4 | 2619.0 | 2626.4 | 452.7 | 469.7 | 477.2 | 482.9 |
応答変数 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 |
感情的分極化 | 政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
手法 | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | Logit | Logit | Logit | Logit |
1.2 感情的分極化のみ
1.3 予測値
1.4 効果量
最小値 | 最大値 | 差分 | 効果量 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
投票意向 (SD = 0.583) | ||||
政党 | 1.562 | 1.872 | 0.310 | 0.531 |
候補者 | 1.568 | 1.878 | 0.310 | 0.533 |
政党の支持者 | 1.575 | 1.927 | 0.352 | 0.605 |
候補者の支持者 | 1.577 | 1.872 | 0.296 | 0.507 |
投票参加 (SD = 0.305) | ||||
政党 | 0.871 | 0.951 | 0.081 | 0.264 |
候補者 | 0.872 | 0.949 | 0.077 | 0.251 |
政党の支持者 | 0.847 | 0.976 | 0.129 | 0.421 |
候補者の支持者 | 0.862 | 0.947 | 0.085 | 0.279 |