付録: 韓国における感情的分極化と投票参加
1 重み付けなし
1.1 推定結果
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | Model 8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
切片 | 1.046 | 1.060 | 1.083 | 1.077 | −1.244 | −0.977 | −1.059 | −1.041 |
(0.103) | (0.103) | (0.102) | (0.102) | (1.055) | (1.035) | (1.009) | (1.003) | |
感情的分極化 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.004 | 0.003 | 0.016 | 0.011 | 0.024 | 0.014 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.006) | |
女性 | −0.031 | −0.039 | −0.041 | −0.039 | −0.485 | −0.483 | −0.389 | −0.399 |
(0.027) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.027) | (0.273) | (0.267) | (0.264) | (0.262) | |
年齢 | −0.001 | −0.001 | −0.001 | −0.001 | 0.003 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.012) | (0.012) | (0.011) | (0.011) | |
学歴 | 0.015 | 0.013 | 0.014 | 0.012 | 0.376 | 0.320 | 0.316 | 0.303 |
(0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.149) | (0.146) | (0.144) | (0.144) | |
世帯収入 | 0.029 | 0.028 | 0.030 | 0.029 | 0.232 | 0.215 | 0.229 | 0.240 |
(0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.110) | (0.108) | (0.106) | (0.106) | |
首都圏居住 | 0.006 | −0.001 | 0.006 | 0.008 | 0.105 | 0.074 | 0.125 | 0.181 |
(0.036) | (0.037) | (0.036) | (0.037) | (0.434) | (0.426) | (0.420) | (0.417) | |
江原居住 | −0.046 | −0.031 | −0.043 | −0.047 | −0.430 | −0.468 | −0.505 | −0.472 |
(0.110) | (0.111) | (0.111) | (0.111) | (0.832) | (0.824) | (0.816) | (0.820) | |
湖西居住 | −0.107 | −0.113 | −0.098 | −0.107 | −0.469 | −0.552 | −0.577 | −0.546 |
(0.062) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.615) | (0.612) | (0.624) | (0.614) | |
湖南・済州居住 | −0.102 | −0.089 | −0.105 | −0.103 | −0.497 | −0.637 | −0.775 | −0.664 |
(0.066) | (0.067) | (0.067) | (0.067) | (0.651) | (0.637) | (0.631) | (0.627) | |
嶺南居住 | −0.026 | −0.027 | −0.031 | −0.021 | −0.190 | −0.211 | −0.283 | −0.195 |
(0.050) | (0.050) | (0.050) | (0.050) | (0.570) | (0.563) | (0.570) | (0.561) | |
首都圏出身 | −0.026 | −0.029 | −0.034 | −0.043 | −0.717 | −0.599 | −0.552 | −0.645 |
(0.044) | (0.044) | (0.043) | (0.044) | (0.491) | (0.479) | (0.470) | (0.466) | |
江原出身 | 0.029 | 0.011 | 0.019 | 0.020 | −0.036 | −0.001 | 0.071 | 0.084 |
(0.091) | (0.091) | (0.091) | (0.091) | (0.887) | (0.884) | (0.881) | (0.881) | |
湖西出身 | 0.041 | 0.040 | 0.028 | 0.034 | −0.175 | −0.132 | −0.042 | −0.062 |
(0.055) | (0.056) | (0.056) | (0.056) | (0.638) | (0.632) | (0.643) | (0.632) | |
湖南・済州出身 | −0.028 | −0.056 | −0.037 | −0.040 | −0.428 | −0.471 | −0.248 | −0.328 |
(0.055) | (0.056) | (0.055) | (0.056) | (0.606) | (0.597) | (0.583) | (0.580) | |
嶺南出身 | −0.016 | −0.021 | −0.020 | −0.023 | −0.610 | −0.612 | −0.506 | −0.563 |
(0.046) | (0.047) | (0.046) | (0.047) | (0.554) | (0.547) | (0.550) | (0.544) | |
政治関心 | 0.106 | 0.107 | 0.105 | 0.106 | 0.446 | 0.487 | 0.432 | 0.442 |
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.129) | (0.125) | (0.124) | (0.123) | |
保革自己認識 | 0.009 | 0.012 | 0.008 | 0.010 | 0.029 | 0.036 | 0.003 | 0.012 |
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.083) | (0.080) | (0.082) | (0.079) | |
内的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.182 | 0.182 | 0.183 | 0.186 | 0.438 | 0.404 | 0.332 | 0.398 |
(0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.205) | (0.203) | (0.198) | (0.195) | |
外的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.016 | 0.290 | 0.258 | 0.254 | 0.257 |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.154) | (0.148) | (0.146) | (0.145) | |
Num.Obs. | 1659 | 1675 | 1695 | 1695 | 780 | 790 | 800 | 800 |
R2 Adj. | 0.186 | 0.177 | 0.178 | 0.174 | ||||
R2 tjur | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.14 | 0.13 | ||||
AIC | 2524.6 | 2588.4 | 2619.0 | 2626.4 | 452.7 | 469.7 | 477.2 | 482.9 |
応答変数 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 |
感情的分極化 | 政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
手法 | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | Logit | Logit | Logit | Logit |
1.2 感情的分極化のみ
1.3 予測値
1.4 効果量
最小値 | 最大値 | 差分 | 効果量 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
投票意向 (SD = 0.583) | ||||
政党 | 1.562 | 1.872 | 0.310 | 0.531 |
候補者 | 1.568 | 1.878 | 0.310 | 0.533 |
政党の支持者 | 1.575 | 1.927 | 0.352 | 0.605 |
候補者の支持者 | 1.577 | 1.872 | 0.296 | 0.507 |
投票参加 (SD = 0.305) | ||||
政党 | 0.871 | 0.951 | 0.081 | 0.264 |
候補者 | 0.872 | 0.949 | 0.077 | 0.251 |
政党の支持者 | 0.847 | 0.976 | 0.129 | 0.421 |
候補者の支持者 | 0.862 | 0.947 | 0.085 | 0.279 |
2 デモグラで重み付け
2.1 推定結果
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | Model 8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
切片 | 1.043 | 1.053 | 1.069 | 1.065 | −2.525 | −2.218 | −2.296 | −2.269 |
(0.101) | (0.101) | (0.100) | (0.100) | (1.075) | (1.052) | (1.029) | (1.025) | |
感情的分極化 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.003 | 0.017 | 0.011 | 0.017 | 0.014 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.008) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.006) | |
女性 | −0.014 | −0.020 | −0.021 | −0.021 | −0.566 | −0.535 | −0.442 | −0.454 |
(0.026) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.026) | (0.270) | (0.264) | (0.259) | (0.258) | |
年齢 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.000 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.001 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.011) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | |
学歴 | −0.008 | −0.008 | −0.008 | −0.009 | 0.478 | 0.431 | 0.415 | 0.401 |
(0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.141) | (0.138) | (0.136) | (0.136) | |
世帯収入 | 0.026 | 0.024 | 0.025 | 0.026 | 0.423 | 0.370 | 0.380 | 0.391 |
(0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.010) | (0.113) | (0.108) | (0.107) | (0.106) | |
首都圏居住 | 0.028 | 0.018 | 0.021 | 0.025 | 0.367 | 0.173 | 0.179 | 0.283 |
(0.039) | (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.039) | (0.479) | (0.462) | (0.455) | (0.452) | |
江原居住 | 0.034 | 0.026 | 0.019 | 0.018 | 0.451 | 0.225 | 0.019 | 0.139 |
(0.097) | (0.097) | (0.097) | (0.097) | (0.868) | (0.860) | (0.851) | (0.853) | |
湖西居住 | −0.077 | −0.076 | −0.071 | −0.079 | −0.801 | −0.944 | −1.026 | −1.004 |
(0.059) | (0.059) | (0.059) | (0.059) | (0.598) | (0.595) | (0.600) | (0.592) | |
湖南・済州居住 | −0.041 | −0.033 | −0.052 | −0.046 | 0.643 | 0.414 | 0.214 | 0.367 |
(0.063) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.063) | (0.643) | (0.631) | (0.624) | (0.619) | |
嶺南居住 | −0.009 | 0.002 | −0.007 | 0.003 | 0.231 | 0.154 | −0.031 | 0.062 |
(0.051) | (0.051) | (0.051) | (0.051) | (0.583) | (0.569) | (0.574) | (0.564) | |
首都圏出身 | −0.018 | −0.017 | −0.016 | −0.027 | −0.632 | −0.347 | −0.258 | −0.415 |
(0.044) | (0.045) | (0.044) | (0.044) | (0.536) | (0.513) | (0.504) | (0.501) | |
江原出身 | 0.070 | 0.063 | 0.068 | 0.068 | −0.032 | 0.033 | 0.200 | 0.173 |
(0.084) | (0.084) | (0.084) | (0.084) | (0.928) | (0.923) | (0.928) | (0.927) | |
湖西出身 | 0.125 | 0.118 | 0.113 | 0.114 | 0.004 | −0.005 | 0.099 | 0.041 |
(0.055) | (0.055) | (0.055) | (0.055) | (0.665) | (0.653) | (0.652) | (0.643) | |
湖南・済州出身 | −0.019 | −0.046 | −0.023 | −0.028 | −0.738 | −0.741 | −0.502 | −0.605 |
(0.057) | (0.058) | (0.057) | (0.057) | (0.640) | (0.624) | (0.606) | (0.604) | |
嶺南出身 | 0.016 | 0.000 | 0.007 | 0.003 | −0.524 | −0.571 | −0.400 | −0.473 |
(0.047) | (0.047) | (0.047) | (0.047) | (0.589) | (0.571) | (0.568) | (0.566) | |
政治関心 | 0.103 | 0.106 | 0.103 | 0.103 | 0.415 | 0.418 | 0.395 | 0.400 |
(0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.133) | (0.128) | (0.126) | (0.126) | |
保革自己認識 | 0.008 | 0.013 | 0.008 | 0.011 | 0.090 | 0.121 | 0.097 | 0.104 |
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.087) | (0.083) | (0.083) | (0.081) | |
内的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.152 | 0.159 | 0.156 | 0.161 | 0.186 | 0.201 | 0.146 | 0.189 |
(0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.202) | (0.204) | (0.196) | (0.193) | |
外的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.010 | 0.014 | 0.014 | 0.015 | 0.436 | 0.373 | 0.337 | 0.340 |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.167) | (0.159) | (0.153) | (0.153) | |
Num.Obs. | 1659 | 1675 | 1695 | 1695 | 780 | 790 | 800 | 800 |
R2 Adj. | 0.167 | 0.153 | 0.156 | 0.153 | ||||
R2 tjur | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 0.12 | ||||
AIC | 2728.4 | 2797.3 | 2824.2 | 2830.8 | 536.6 | 559.3 | 574.5 | 577.5 |
応答変数 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 |
感情的分極化 | 政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
手法 | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | Logit | Logit | Logit | Logit |
2.2 感情的分極化のみ
2.3 予測値
2.4 効果量
最小値 | 最大値 | 差分 | 効果量 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
投票意向 (SD = 0.565) | ||||
政党 | 1.582 | 1.882 | 0.300 | 0.532 |
候補者 | 1.610 | 1.851 | 0.241 | 0.427 |
政党の支持者 | 1.606 | 1.914 | 0.309 | 0.547 |
候補者の支持者 | 1.608 | 1.864 | 0.256 | 0.454 |
投票参加 (SD = 0.308) | ||||
政党 | 0.874 | 0.956 | 0.082 | 0.265 |
候補者 | 0.882 | 0.950 | 0.068 | 0.220 |
政党の支持者 | 0.871 | 0.965 | 0.094 | 0.306 |
候補者の支持者 | 0.869 | 0.949 | 0.080 | 0.261 |
注: 標準偏差は性別・年齢・地域で重み付け |
3 投票参加で重み付け
3.1 推定結果
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | Model 8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
切片 | 0.934 | 0.932 | 0.964 | 0.949 | −3.342 | −3.002 | −3.050 | −3.157 |
(0.112) | (0.112) | (0.111) | (0.111) | (0.729) | (0.709) | (0.694) | (0.684) | |
感情的分極化 | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.005 | 0.004 | 0.018 | 0.014 | 0.025 | 0.016 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.005) | (0.004) | (0.005) | (0.004) | |
女性 | −0.020 | −0.029 | −0.034 | −0.032 | −0.555 | −0.556 | −0.478 | −0.479 |
(0.030) | (0.030) | (0.030) | (0.030) | (0.180) | (0.177) | (0.176) | (0.174) | |
年齢 | −0.002 | −0.002 | −0.002 | −0.002 | 0.003 | −0.001 | 0.000 | 0.002 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | |
学歴 | 0.026 | 0.025 | 0.026 | 0.024 | 0.408 | 0.358 | 0.373 | 0.348 |
(0.017) | (0.017) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.106) | (0.104) | (0.104) | (0.103) | |
世帯収入 | 0.019 | 0.019 | 0.022 | 0.022 | 0.198 | 0.170 | 0.193 | 0.220 |
(0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.011) | (0.076) | (0.075) | (0.074) | (0.072) | |
首都圏居住 | 0.074 | 0.066 | 0.069 | 0.066 | 0.353 | 0.357 | 0.406 | 0.433 |
(0.040) | (0.041) | (0.040) | (0.041) | (0.271) | (0.268) | (0.267) | (0.265) | |
江原居住 | −0.041 | −0.038 | −0.035 | −0.048 | 0.081 | 0.011 | 0.096 | 0.085 |
(0.120) | (0.120) | (0.120) | (0.121) | (0.609) | (0.598) | (0.603) | (0.598) | |
湖西居住 | −0.073 | −0.071 | −0.047 | −0.061 | −0.230 | −0.306 | −0.301 | −0.320 |
(0.068) | (0.069) | (0.068) | (0.069) | (0.378) | (0.377) | (0.378) | (0.376) | |
湖南・済州居住 | −0.047 | −0.025 | −0.033 | −0.035 | −0.527 | −0.748 | −0.832 | −0.742 |
(0.072) | (0.072) | (0.072) | (0.072) | (0.465) | (0.457) | (0.458) | (0.452) | |
嶺南居住 | 0.001 | −0.010 | −0.011 | −0.008 | −0.008 | −0.043 | −0.122 | −0.008 |
(0.054) | (0.054) | (0.054) | (0.054) | (0.361) | (0.358) | (0.360) | (0.355) | |
首都圏出身 | −0.071 | −0.082 | −0.092 | −0.097 | −1.011 | −0.939 | −0.968 | −0.957 |
(0.048) | (0.048) | (0.048) | (0.048) | (0.313) | (0.309) | (0.306) | (0.303) | |
江原出身 | −0.029 | −0.043 | −0.036 | −0.039 | 0.182 | 0.214 | 0.262 | 0.278 |
(0.094) | (0.093) | (0.093) | (0.094) | (0.599) | (0.598) | (0.601) | (0.593) | |
湖西出身 | 0.008 | 0.012 | −0.008 | 0.003 | −0.270 | −0.232 | −0.219 | −0.137 |
(0.060) | (0.060) | (0.060) | (0.060) | (0.379) | (0.377) | (0.377) | (0.376) | |
湖南・済州出身 | −0.077 | −0.112 | −0.101 | −0.106 | −0.618 | −0.648 | −0.507 | −0.550 |
(0.061) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.061) | (0.408) | (0.405) | (0.402) | (0.396) | |
嶺南出身 | −0.043 | −0.041 | −0.042 | −0.040 | −0.888 | −0.887 | −0.783 | −0.865 |
(0.051) | (0.051) | (0.051) | (0.051) | (0.344) | (0.341) | (0.341) | (0.339) | |
政治関心 | 0.122 | 0.124 | 0.121 | 0.124 | 0.427 | 0.476 | 0.420 | 0.430 |
(0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.014) | (0.085) | (0.083) | (0.082) | (0.081) | |
保革自己認識 | 0.014 | 0.018 | 0.012 | 0.015 | 0.045 | 0.051 | 0.002 | 0.021 |
(0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.007) | (0.055) | (0.054) | (0.053) | (0.052) | |
内的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.193 | 0.196 | 0.195 | 0.200 | 0.363 | 0.326 | 0.291 | 0.342 |
(0.021) | (0.021) | (0.021) | (0.021) | (0.132) | (0.131) | (0.131) | (0.129) | |
外的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.022 | 0.029 | 0.029 | 0.030 | 0.276 | 0.264 | 0.288 | 0.245 |
(0.015) | (0.016) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.103) | (0.100) | (0.100) | (0.098) | |
Num.Obs. | 1659 | 1675 | 1695 | 1695 | 780 | 790 | 800 | 800 |
R2 Adj. | 0.196 | 0.187 | 0.190 | 0.183 | ||||
R2 tjur | 0.25 | 0.24 | 0.26 | 0.24 | ||||
AIC | 3522.5 | 3598.3 | 3634.4 | 3649.6 | 1106.4 | 1146.0 | 1158.6 | 1176.1 |
応答変数 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 |
感情的分極化 | 政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
手法 | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | Logit | Logit | Logit | Logit |
3.2 感情的分極化のみ
3.3 予測値
3.4 効果量
最小値 | 最大値 | 差分 | 効果量 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
投票意向 (SD = 0.644) | ||||
政党 | 1.491 | 1.864 | 0.374 | 0.581 |
候補者 | 1.494 | 1.867 | 0.373 | 0.580 |
政党の支持者 | 1.496 | 1.945 | 0.449 | 0.697 |
候補者の支持者 | 1.509 | 1.853 | 0.344 | 0.534 |
投票参加 (SD = 0.499) | ||||
政党 | 0.534 | 0.781 | 0.247 | 0.496 |
候補者 | 0.533 | 0.782 | 0.249 | 0.499 |
政党の支持者 | 0.492 | 0.861 | 0.369 | 0.739 |
候補者の支持者 | 0.520 | 0.751 | 0.231 | 0.464 |
注: 標準偏差は2022年6月の統一地方選挙の投票有無で重み付け |
4 党派性で重み付け
4.1 推定結果
Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 3 | Model 4 | Model 5 | Model 6 | Model 7 | Model 8 | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
切片 | 0.546 | 0.553 | 0.578 | 0.550 | −1.556 | −1.676 | −1.932 | −2.138 |
(0.122) | (0.123) | (0.121) | (0.122) | (1.183) | (1.151) | (1.121) | (1.135) | |
感情的分極化 | 0.006 | 0.005 | 0.005 | 0.003 | 0.032 | 0.033 | 0.035 | 0.035 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.009) | (0.007) | (0.008) | (0.007) | |
女性 | 0.004 | 0.002 | 0.001 | 0.006 | −0.363 | −0.485 | −0.355 | −0.317 |
(0.031) | (0.032) | (0.031) | (0.031) | (0.285) | (0.279) | (0.278) | (0.277) | |
年齢 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.001 | 0.002 | 0.015 | 0.001 | 0.007 | 0.003 |
(0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.001) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | (0.013) | |
学歴 | 0.011 | 0.005 | 0.007 | 0.006 | 0.310 | 0.223 | 0.258 | 0.221 |
(0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.019) | (0.165) | (0.163) | (0.158) | (0.162) | |
世帯収入 | 0.052 | 0.049 | 0.049 | 0.050 | 0.154 | 0.190 | 0.200 | 0.213 |
(0.012) | (0.013) | (0.012) | (0.013) | (0.119) | (0.115) | (0.112) | (0.114) | |
首都圏居住 | −0.105 | −0.109 | −0.097 | −0.092 | −1.103 | −0.858 | −0.816 | −0.582 |
(0.043) | (0.043) | (0.043) | (0.043) | (0.500) | (0.460) | (0.455) | (0.452) | |
江原居住 | −0.151 | −0.148 | −0.163 | −0.178 | −2.060 | −1.729 | −1.968 | −1.831 |
(0.119) | (0.121) | (0.120) | (0.121) | (0.900) | (0.885) | (0.854) | (0.881) | |
湖西居住 | −0.272 | −0.282 | −0.255 | −0.260 | −2.428 | −2.372 | −2.558 | −2.367 |
(0.073) | (0.074) | (0.073) | (0.074) | (0.674) | (0.653) | (0.663) | (0.657) | |
湖南・済州居住 | −0.059 | −0.045 | −0.057 | −0.052 | −1.688 | −1.570 | −1.739 | −1.525 |
(0.083) | (0.085) | (0.084) | (0.084) | (0.725) | (0.694) | (0.692) | (0.688) | |
嶺南居住 | −0.157 | −0.173 | −0.169 | −0.159 | −1.596 | −1.356 | −1.530 | −1.235 |
(0.059) | (0.060) | (0.060) | (0.060) | (0.632) | (0.609) | (0.614) | (0.612) | |
首都圏出身 | −0.002 | −0.008 | −0.005 | −0.023 | 0.379 | 0.600 | 0.656 | 0.495 |
(0.051) | (0.051) | (0.051) | (0.051) | (0.517) | (0.505) | (0.497) | (0.500) | |
江原出身 | −0.198 | −0.203 | −0.192 | −0.191 | 1.338 | 1.590 | 1.678 | 1.772 |
(0.101) | (0.102) | (0.102) | (0.102) | (1.111) | (1.114) | (1.106) | (1.125) | |
湖西出身 | 0.117 | 0.122 | 0.106 | 0.108 | 2.793 | 3.089 | 3.139 | 3.032 |
(0.066) | (0.067) | (0.067) | (0.067) | (1.109) | (1.096) | (1.112) | (1.101) | |
湖南・済州出身 | −0.062 | −0.089 | −0.068 | −0.070 | −0.008 | 0.127 | 0.310 | 0.271 |
(0.067) | (0.068) | (0.068) | (0.068) | (0.620) | (0.610) | (0.601) | (0.604) | |
嶺南出身 | 0.055 | 0.051 | 0.043 | 0.039 | 0.055 | 0.263 | 0.322 | 0.245 |
(0.055) | (0.055) | (0.055) | (0.055) | (0.537) | (0.537) | (0.532) | (0.542) | |
政治関心 | 0.154 | 0.157 | 0.156 | 0.161 | 0.474 | 0.619 | 0.574 | 0.605 |
(0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.015) | (0.140) | (0.135) | (0.132) | (0.135) | |
保革自己認識 | 0.018 | 0.026 | 0.022 | 0.027 | 0.035 | 0.032 | 0.034 | 0.045 |
(0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.008) | (0.083) | (0.083) | (0.084) | (0.083) | |
内的政治的有効性感覚 | 0.218 | 0.225 | 0.227 | 0.240 | −0.198 | −0.270 | −0.218 | −0.216 |
(0.022) | (0.023) | (0.022) | (0.022) | (0.208) | (0.212) | (0.203) | (0.207) | |
外的政治的有効性感覚 | −0.004 | 0.003 | 0.002 | 0.003 | 0.323 | 0.382 | 0.327 | 0.345 |
(0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.016) | (0.166) | (0.161) | (0.157) | (0.159) | |
Num.Obs. | 1586 | 1599 | 1618 | 1618 | 753 | 761 | 770 | 770 |
R2 Adj. | 0.275 | 0.260 | 0.262 | 0.251 | ||||
R2 tjur | 0.14 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.16 | ||||
AIC | 3152.4 | 3234.4 | 3260.8 | 3285.7 | 439.8 | 456.6 | 464.4 | 458.8 |
応答変数 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票意向 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 | 投票参加 |
感情的分極化 | 政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
政党 | 候補者 | 政党の 支持者 |
候補者の 支持者 |
手法 | OLS | OLS | OLS | OLS | Logit | Logit | Logit | Logit |
4.2 感情的分極化のみ
4.3 予測値
4.4 効果量
最小値 | 最大値 | 差分 | 効果量 | |
---|---|---|---|---|
投票意向 (SD = 0.711) | ||||
政党 | 1.416 | 1.885 | 0.469 | 0.660 |
候補者 | 1.430 | 1.875 | 0.445 | 0.626 |
政党の支持者 | 1.443 | 1.942 | 0.499 | 0.701 |
候補者の支持者 | 1.480 | 1.791 | 0.311 | 0.438 |
投票参加 (SD = 0.326) | ||||
政党 | 0.815 | 0.975 | 0.160 | 0.490 |
候補者 | 0.779 | 0.984 | 0.205 | 0.629 |
政党の支持者 | 0.795 | 0.985 | 0.190 | 0.583 |
候補者の支持者 | 0.773 | 0.977 | 0.204 | 0.625 |
注: 標準偏差は2022年3月大統領選挙の投票先で重み付け |
5 セッション情報
sessionInfo()
R version 4.3.1 (2023-06-16)
Platform: aarch64-apple-darwin20 (64-bit)
Running under: macOS Ventura 13.5
Matrix products: default
BLAS: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.3-arm64/Resources/lib/libRblas.0.dylib
LAPACK: /Library/Frameworks/R.framework/Versions/4.3-arm64/Resources/lib/libRlapack.dylib; LAPACK version 3.11.0
locale:
[1] en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8/C/en_US.UTF-8/en_US.UTF-8
time zone: Asia/Tokyo
tzcode source: internal
attached base packages:
[1] stats graphics grDevices utils datasets methods base
other attached packages:
[1] ggh4x_0.2.5 BalanceR_0.8.0 modelsummary_1.4.2 fastDummies_1.7.3
[5] margins_0.3.26 prediction_0.3.14 naniar_1.0.0 gt_0.9.0
[9] lubridate_1.9.2 forcats_1.0.0 stringr_1.5.0 dplyr_1.1.2
[13] purrr_1.0.2 readr_2.1.4 tidyr_1.3.0 tibble_3.2.1
[17] ggplot2_3.4.3 tidyverse_2.0.0
loaded via a namespace (and not attached):
[1] gtable_0.3.4 bayestestR_0.13.1 xfun_0.40 htmlwidgets_1.6.2
[5] visdat_0.6.0 insight_0.19.3 lattice_0.21-8 tzdb_0.4.0
[9] vctrs_0.6.3 tools_4.3.1 generics_0.1.3 datawizard_0.8.0
[13] parallel_4.3.1 fansi_1.0.4 pacman_0.5.1 pkgconfig_2.0.3
[17] checkmate_2.2.0 data.table_1.14.8 webshot_0.5.5 lifecycle_1.0.3
[21] compiler_4.3.1 textshaping_0.3.6 munsell_0.5.0 htmltools_0.5.6
[25] yaml_2.3.7 crayon_1.5.2 pillar_1.9.0 MASS_7.3-60
[29] DT_0.28 tidyselect_1.2.0 rvest_1.0.3 digest_0.6.33
[33] performance_0.10.4 stringi_1.7.12 fastmap_1.1.1 grid_4.3.1
[37] colorspace_2.1-0 cli_3.6.1 magrittr_2.0.3 utf8_1.2.3
[41] withr_2.5.0 backports_1.4.1 scales_1.2.1 bit64_4.0.5
[45] timechange_0.2.0 rmarkdown_2.24 httr_1.4.7 bit_4.0.5
[49] zoo_1.8-12 ragg_1.2.5 hms_1.1.3 kableExtra_1.3.4
[53] evaluate_0.21 knitr_1.43 parameters_0.21.1 lmtest_0.9-40
[57] viridisLite_0.4.2 rlang_1.1.1 glue_1.6.2 xml2_1.3.5
[61] svglite_2.1.1 rstudioapi_0.15.0 vroom_1.6.3 jsonlite_1.8.7
[65] R6_2.5.1 tables_0.9.17 systemfonts_1.0.4
$version.string # R version
[1] "R version 4.3.1 (2023-06-16)"
::quarto_inspect()$quarto$version # Quarto quarto
[1] "1.4.330"